The $8M Question

$8M → $25M.
How Probable? How Fast?

A 3:1 leverage ratio is aggressive — but achievable. Federal grants regularly use matching funds at ratios of 1:1 to 3:1. Norman / Cleveland County would be targeting the upper end. Here is an honest, scenario-based assessment.

Three Scenarios

An Honest Assessment.

This is not a promise. It is a probability model — built on real grant timelines, real foundation relationships, and real risks. Norman / Cleveland County deserves honesty, not hype.

Scenario A — Everything Works ✅
25–35%
probability

The City of Norman passes Prop 5. The Council moves immediately. Within 60 days they file for HUD CoC, HOME, HUD-VASH, CDBG, ESG, Robert Wood Johnson, MacArthur, and George Kaiser Family Foundation — the fastest and largest single Oklahoma source available.

$10M–$15M within 18 months
Full $25M by Year 3
Scenario B — Partial Success ⚠️
45–55%
probability — most likely outcome

The City of Norman wins the ballot but the federal environment creates friction. Current HUD attempts to rule changes are in legal flux — 20 states plus D.C. have filed suit. Norman / Cleveland County likely raises $8M–$12M federal + $5M–$8M foundations.

$13M–$20M within 3 years
Still a 2:1 return — a massive win
Scenario C — Stalls ❌
15–20%
probability

Prop 5 passes but the Norman City Council doesn't move aggressively to make necessary leadership changes and does not declare that the Norman / Cleveland County HUD CoC is a Housing First Program. Federal environment worsens. Foundation outreach stays passive. Only formula-based grants received.

$3M–$5M over 3 years
This outcome is preventable
Realistic Funding Timeline
Funding Source First Award Expected Realistic Amount
HUD ESG / CDBG (formula) 90–120 days post-ballot $500K–$1.2M/yr
HUD CoC Competitive Grant 9–14 months $1M–$3M
HOME Program 12–18 months $500K–$2M
HUD-VASH (Veterans) 6–12 months $500K–$1M
George Kaiser Foundation (Tulsa) 6–9 months $500K–$2M
Robert Wood Johnson Foundation 9–15 months $1M–$3M
MacArthur / Gates / Others 12–24 months $1M–$5M
Cumulative Year 3 Full campaign $18M–$28M
What Increases Probability 🔑
  • Hire a full-time grant writer immediately after April 7 — worth $3M–$5M alone
  • IGH Vanguard City designation — foundations will chase Norman / Cleveland County
  • George Kaiser Family Foundation — most immediate Oklahoma source
  • Coordinate with Oklahoma CoC — accelerates federal timelines
  • Present the $8M as committed — funders need skin in the game
What Hurts Probability ⚠️
  • Current HUD rule changes deprioritizing Housing First
  • No dedicated grant infrastructure at the city level
  • Council inaction or bureaucratic delay post-April 7
  • Competing Oklahoma communities filing for the same pools
Bottom Line

Reaching $25M is realistic — but not automatic. The $8M bond is the credibility anchor that unlocks the door. The communities that win aren't just the ones with the best plans — they're the ones with someone working the phones and filing applications the day after the ballot. Norman / Cleveland County can be that community. That started with a Prop 5 YES vote on April 7 by the Citizens of Norman. Now the Norman / Cleveland County HUD CoC is set and ready for a new successful direction and a Proclamation announcing a Housing First System.

Our Love Makes a Difference
Our Love Makes a Difference.

Homelessness reflects not individual failings, but society's unwillingness to care for its people.

— Unknown